RELEVANSI EKSPEKTASI INFLASI DAN UTANG PEMERINTAH TERHADAP KEBIJAKAN MONETER DI ASEAN-5
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.19184/jek.v9i2.53691Keywords:
Ekspektasi Inflasi, Utang Pemerintah, GDP, Kebijakan Moneter, ASEAN-5Abstract
Kebijakan moneter berperan penting dalam menjaga stabilitas perekonomian di ASEAN-5. Ekspektasi inflasi, utang pemerintah, dan pertumbuhan PDB menjadi faktor utama yang mempengaruhi arah kebijakan moneter. Berdasarkan teori ekspektasi rasional, ekspektasi inflasi yang mempengaruhi efektifitas kebijakan moneter. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis perkembangan dan pengaruh ketiga variabel tersebut terhadap kebijakan moneter di ASEAN-5 menggunakan metode Panel Least Square (PLS). Hasilnya menunjukkan bahwa ekspektasi inflasi dan PDB berdampak positif signifikan terhadap kebijakan moneter. Peningkatan inflasi mendorong pengetatan kebijakan, sementara pertumbuhan PDB memberi ruang untuk stabilisasi. Namun, perlambatan PDB dapat mendorong kebijakan pelonggaran guna menjaga stabilitas perekonomian
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